The Challenge
Binary classifications like “permanent” vs “nature-based” pit carbon sequestration methods against each other
And obscure how risks behave across time, limiting effective deployment and investment.
Our Approach
Carbon at Risk measures carbon storage outcomes over time, from best to worst-case.
Assess correlations by converting unavoidable risks like temperature change and institutional security into specific forces that act on the pathways we cover
Why it matters
Achieving net zero requires a massive scale-up of carbon sequestration, looking beyond what is stored, to how secure that commitment is
Better risk management supports faster deployment, increased integrity, and more resilient climate strategies.
Explore
The CaR measure quantifies non-permanence risks over time, capturing not just expected losses, but the rare edge cases too
The CaR Framework enables a global portfolio assessment of risk providing the foundation for better risk management, procurement, and policy across all removal pathways.
Research
Our approach is grounded in ongoing academic research
The CaR Framework
Inspired by Value at Risk in financial markets, CaR measures how carbon storage evolves over different climate trajectories
By mapping each pathway onto a common set of geographically determined drivers (temperature & institutional quality), the CaR framework reveals where risks cluster and where they diversify
This enables meaningful comparison & combination across pathways, from reforestation to direct air capture, supporting better risk pricing, management, and planning.
How does storage security evolve? What are the best and worst case scenarios? How likely are they to occur? What is the best way to buffer against them?
01 Non-permanence risk (CaR)
Do risks move together or separately? How does the global portfolio respond to different climate shocks? Can we track changes in total carbon stocks over time?
02 Correlation Analysis (Atlas)
Should a tonne reverse, what is the cost of obtaining future carbon storage? What is the optimal strategy? Should we cover our risk now, or invest for the future?
03 The Price of Permanence
ABOUT US
We are building an open measure & risk framework that benefits from shared insight, critique and contribution.
